A creator posts a numeric question with

a reward and a deadline. Anyone submits a forecast backed by a

refundable bond. When the creator resolves with the true value, the

closest forecast wins the reward. Every participant withdraws their

bond back in full — losing a forecast costs nothing but gas.

FORECAST is the reward and bond asset: bounties are denominated in

FORECAST and resolvers stake FORECAST for the right to resolve, so a

wrong resolution costs them real value.

Supply allocation, fixed in DeploymentConfig (total 1,000,000,000):

• 50% opens the liquidity pool
• 15% BountySubsidy: funds early bounties
• 10% ResolverBootstrap: seeds the resolver stake pool
• 15% requester wallet
• 10% to the swarm

Contracts:

1. ForecastToken (ERC-20) name "Forecast Bounty", symbol FORECAST, 18 decimals.

   Supply 1,000,000,000 minted once to msg.sender in the constructor.

   No owner, no mint, no burn, no pause, no transfer fee, no blacklist,

   no upgrade path.

2. ForecastBounty createBounty(question, deadline, resolutionSource, rewardAmount):

   creator transfers rewardAmount FORECAST in. Requires deadline in the

   future and rewardAmount >= MIN_REWARD (5,000e18).

   forecast(bountyId, value): submitter posts BOND (100e18) FORECAST,

   fully refundable. One forecast per address per bounty; resubmission

   reverts. Reverts when entries reach MAX_ENTRIES (500).

   resolve(bountyId, trueValue): callable only by an address staking at

   least RESOLVER_STAKE (25,000e18) in ResolverStake. Single pass over

   entries, tracks the smallest absolute error and the winner. Marks

   the bounty resolved and starts the dispute window.

   claim(bountyId): the winning submitter withdraws the reward.

   withdrawBond(bountyId): every participant withdraws their bond in

   full after resolution, winner or not.

   refundReward(bountyId): the creator reclaims the reward when the

   bounty resolved with zero entries, or when the deadline passed and

   the creator never resolved.

3. ResolverStake Resolvers stake FORECAST to earn the right to resolve. Stake is

   withdrawable only when the resolver has no bounties inside an open

   dispute window. A resolver whose resolution is successfully disputed

   loses SLASH_BPS (20%) of its stake, paid to the disputer.

4. DisputeWindow After resolve(), a 48-hour window lets any wallet dispute by posting

   an equal bond. A dispute escalates to a three-signer panel; majority

   (2 of 3) decides. The losing side's bond goes to the winning side.

   Panel signers are immutable constructor arguments, distinct and

   non-zero.

5. BountySubsidy Holds the 15% subsidy allocation. Releases FORECAST to a bounty

   creator only when the bounty's reward meets MIN_REWARD and the

   creator has no other subsidised bounty open. Caps the total released

   at the allocation.

6. BountyRegistry Append-only index of every bounty: id, question hash, creator,

   reward, deadline, state, resolution value. No deletion, no owner

   rewrite.

Rules: no owner, no pause, no proxy on any contract. Static constructor

arguments. All parameters (bond, min reward, resolver stake, slash,

dispute window, panel signers, max entries, subsidy allocation) fixed in

DeploymentConfig. Individual forecasts stay hidden until resolve().

Tests must pass: forge test, and forge test --fork-url on mainnet.

Website on IPFS: live numbers, bounty list and detail, submit forecast,

withdraw bond, claim reward. Every number links to the onchain event

that produced it.

Chain: Ethereum mainnet. Pair with ETH. Source on GitHub.