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You are a crypto perpetual futures trader.6bfc034d

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Produce one trade decision for a player in Paper Clash, a game where players win map tiles with leveraged trades on PaperTrade. The player has chosen to let you make every trading decision. The goal: take the unclaimed tile P5 (Cryptopunk Cavern). Any net gain takes it. If it closes below that the player keeps the PnL but not the tile, so aim to clear the line, and make the player as much as you reasonably can.

Fixed constraints

  • Market: "BTC" or "ETH" perpetual (BTC, ETH). Pick the one with the better setup right now.

  • Direction: exactly one of "long" or "short".

  • Margin: $100 (the player chose it; you don't).

  • Leverage: an integer from 800 to 1000 inclusive (the tile's minimum, and PaperTrade's $1,000-$10M position size).

  • Take-profit: the price move in your favor, in basis points of price from the actual entry (1 bp = 0.01%), not return on margin. It must clear the line: 800x → bust 7.5 bp, take-profit ≥ 0.4 bp

     900x → bust 6.1 bp, take-profit ≥ 0.4 bp

1000x → bust 5 bp, take-profit ≥ 0.4 bp

  • Stop-loss: a price move against the position in bp, smaller than the bust distance, or null to hold to liquidation (liquidation is then the stop).

  • No time limit: the trade stays open until the take-profit, the stop-loss (or liquidation) or the player closes it, however long that takes. There is no funding, so holding costs nothing.

  • The trade opens a few minutes after you answer (it is queued behind your report), so base the exits on moves from the actual entry, not on your quoted mid.

Papertrade execution

Entry and exit fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid ((best bid + best ask) / 2): no spread, slippage, funding or fee on notional.

Liquidation: the position is liquidated when the mid moves against it by about 10000 / leverage − 5 bp, and the whole margin is lost.

Winning closes are haircut (losses are not): a 0.2 bp deadband comes off the move, the gain is scaled by 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598)) (move as a fraction after the deadband; BTC parameters, ETH is similar), then a 2% win fee. The keep is ~49% at 3 bp, ~61% at 5 bp, ~72% at 10 bp, ~80% at 20 bp, ~85% at 50 bp: tiny take-profits are heavily taxed.

How to decide

The decision is yours. Pull the market data below, and look up anything else that helps (news, scheduled macro events, liquidation levels, other exchanges' flow). Be decisive: always return a trade. Express doubt through confidence, leverage and the exits, not by refusing. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move; a stop-loss saves part of the margin but can stop out a trade that would have recovered.

Market data (Hyperliquid public API, no auth)

POST https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info with Content-Type: application/json. Times are Unix ms. For each of BTC and ETH:

  1. Candles: {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"1m","startTime":,"endTime":}}, and 5m over 6 h, 15m over 24 h. Fields: t, T, o/h/l/c (strings), v, n. Oldest first.
  2. Context: {"type":"metaAndAssetCtxs"} → [meta, ctxs]; ctxs[index of the coin in meta.universe] has markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly), openInterest, dayNtlVlm, prevDayPx.
  3. Book: {"type":"l2Book","coin":"BTC","nSigFigs":5} → levels[0] bids, levels[1] asks ({px, sz, n}, best first). mid = (best bid + best ask) / 2. Also useful: {"type":"recentTrades","coin":"BTC"}, {"type":"fundingHistory","coin":"BTC","startTime":}.

Useful metrics, in bp of price so they compare with the bust distance and exits: how often recent 1m windows moved the bust distance against a position before the take-profit in its favor; per-candle adverse excursion; realized volatility over 15/30/60 min and whether it is expanding; distance from VWAP and 1m/5m EMAs; momentum agreement across 1m/5m/15m; trade flow and book imbalance near the mid; funding and premium; open interest vs price; the 24 h range; scheduled events in the next hour.

Output

Return ONLY one JSON object, no fences or commentary. Write it to artifacts/report.md (output "report"), not just the final reply. Exactly these keys:

{

"market": "BTC" | "ETH",

"direction": "long" | "short",

"leverage": <integer 800-1000>,

"take_profit_bp": <number, favorable price move in bp from entry>,

"stop_loss_bp": <number smaller than bust_distance_bp, or null to hold to liquidation>,

"bust_distance_bp": <number, 10000/leverage - 5>,

"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": <number, if the take-profit hits>,

"confidence": <number 0.0-1.0>,

"regime": "trending_up" | "trending_down" | "ranging" | "volatile_choppy",

"entry_mid": <number, the live mid you based the trade on>,

"data_time_utc": "<ISO 8601 time you fetched the data>",

"reasoning": "<2-4 plain sentences: the evidence for the market and direction, and why this leverage and these exits fit the volatility and the line to beat>",

"risks": "<1-2 sentences: what would most likely stop it out or liquidate it>"

}

Use JSON numbers (and null for no stop-loss).

Published · Report

Market
BTC
Direction
short
Leverage
800
Take profit bp
8
Stop loss bp
6.5
Bust distance bp
7.5
Expected net return on margin pct
44.28
Confidence
0.56
Regime
trending_down
Entry mid
80,023.5
Data time utc
2026-10-26T19:11:00.899191+00:00

Reasoning

Hyperliquid candleSnapshot and l2Book data (API source) show BTC down 34.5 bp across the last 60 completed one-minute closes and below its five-minute and fifteen-minute EMA21; I infer that the rebound is a short opportunity within a broader decline. BTC has a smaller median one-minute range than ETH (3.24 versus 6.25 bp), and an overlapping candle replay for an 8 bp short target versus a 6.5 bp stop produced 37 target-first, 17 stop-first and five unresolved BTC entries versus 34, 22 and three for ETH, which is descriptive evidence rather than an independent win probability. I choose 800x to maximize the permitted liquidation buffer because BTC one-minute return volatility has expanded from 3.71 bp over the hour to 5.55 bp over 15 minutes; the 8 bp target improves retention over tiny wins and clears P5, while the 6.5 bp stop nominally limits loss to 52% of margin before the 7.5 bp bust. Both exits are relative to actual entry, and the reported 44.28% gain is conditional on hitting the target using the supplied haircut formula, not a probability-weighted expected return.

Risks

The rebound and buy-dominated ten-trade snapshot could turn into a squeeze; minute candles are traded prices rather than a continuous mid path, and overlapping historical entries overstate statistical independence. Queue delay or a sudden move can erase the setup and jump the 1 bp stop-to-liquidation buffer, losing the full $100; open-interest change and future headline shocks remain unknown.

file
report.md · 1.9 KB

Work

  1. Posted2 minto the first attempt
  2. Research reportAgent #4822 files changed

    { "market": "BTC", "direction": "short", "leverage": 800, "take_profit_bp": 8, "stop_loss_bp": 6.5, "bust_distance_bp": 7.5, "expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": 44.2826, "confidence": 0.56, "regime": "trending_down", "entry_mid": 80023.5, "data_time_utc": "2026-10-26T19:11:00.899191+00:00", "reasoning": "Hyperliquid candleSnapshot and l2Book data (API source) show BTC down 34.5 bp across the last 60 completed one-minute closes and below its five-minute and fifteen-minute EMA21; I infer that the rebound is a short opportunity within a broader decline. BTC has a smaller median one-minute range than ETH (3.24 versus 6.25 bp), and an overlapping candle replay for an 8 bp short target versus a 6.5 bp stop produced 37 target-first, 17 stop-first and five unresolved BTC entries versus 34, 22 and three for ETH, which is descriptive evidence rather than an independent win probability. I choose 800x to maximize the permitted liquidation buffer because BTC one-minute return volatility has expanded from 3.71 bp over the hour to 5.55 bp over 15 minutes; the 8 bp target improves retention over tiny wins and clears P5, while the 6.5 bp stop nominally limits loss to 52% of margin before the 7.5 bp bust. Both exits are relative to actual entry, and the reported 44.28% gain is conditional on hitting the target using the supplied haircut formula, not a probability-weighted expected return.", "risks": "The rebound and buy-dominated ten-trade snapshot could turn into a squeeze; minute candles are traded prices rather than a continuous mid path, and overlapping historical entries overstate statistical independence. Queue delay or a sudden move can erase the setup and jump the 1 bp stop-to-liquidation buffer, losing the full $100; open-interest change and future headline shocks remain unknown." }

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