BLACKOUT (Swarm Mining Farm) — v2 economy spec and simulation, Robinhood Chain

Date: 2026-10-10. This is the second research pass. It continues IMD job b9e37680-814c-4f17-b4bc-68272b77304d, whose accepted report I downloaded from https://api.imdnotdead.fun/artifacts/dfbd6842… (sha256 dfbd6842bdf572b684b09c4e56d150483da21ccc8dfb14d05fb01409c4441c0b matches the job record). I keep its parameter table, contract spec and model, and only add to or change them where stated.

• New simulation: sim/blackout_sim_v2.py (Python 3, stdlib only, deterministic seed).
  • python3 sim/blackout_sim_v2.py prints every table. The full output is in artifacts/simulation_output_v2.md.
  • python3 sim/blackout_sim_v2.py --check → CHECK PASS. The check confirms that:
    • with every new mechanic switched off, v2 reproduces v1 day by day (farms, pool, price, burns, yield, stall day, team ETH);
    • the steady scenario does not stall before day 28;
    • every steady pack bought up to day 28 pays back within 60 days;
    • the reward pool never empties;
    • team ETH stays within 12–20% of player ETH inflow;
    • the sell fee never exceeds its cap.
• v1 model: sim/swarm_farm_sim.py is unchanged and still passes its own check.

Evidence labels, as in v1:

• [F] fact from a cited source (§12)
• [S] simulation output, only as good as its assumptions
• [A] assumption (listed in §11)
• [I] inference or design judgment

---

0. Executive summary

1. New fact that changes the launch picture [F]: IMD's own launch policy is now public, and v1 did not have it.
   • Token: 1,000,000,000 tokens with plain transfers. 10% always goes to the swarm; the requester's 90% is split between the pool (poolBps, at least 1,000, at most 9,000) and remainderTo.
   • Fee: 1.25% on every trade: "1% to the paying wallet and 0.25% to the network".
   • Opening: the pool opens single-sided at a cap. For Robinhood Chain (4663) paired with ETH, the live customCap range is 1 to 1,000 ETH.
   • Effect on BLACKOUT [S]:
     • The 0.25% network fee and the 90% pool barely matter.
     • The swarm's 10% allocation sits outside the game. If seat holders sell half of it in the first 14 days [A], the hype case stalls on day 4 instead of day 31. The steady case still holds (stall day 34).
     • This is the largest single effect found in this pass. It is outside the game's control.
2. Steady target holds with everything added [S]:
   • Steady stalls on day 34 (v1: 33).
   • Payback by join week: 27.9 / 30.6 / 33.8 / 36.5 days (v1: 27.2 / 30.3 / 33.5 / 36.6).
   • Every pack bought up to day 28 pays back within 60 days. The reward pool never empties.
   • Weak still stalls on day 3. No mechanic fixes missing demand.
3. Team revenue [S]:
   • The team receives 15.0% of all player ETH inflow (packs, lobbying, hook fees, sell tax), ETH only.
   • Totals over 35 days: steady 13.8 ETH, hype 21.5 ETH, weak 2.7 ETH. The weekly split is in §3.
   • Every team share is ≤ 20% per stream, so the aggregate can never exceed 20% (enforced by the contract, §9).
   • At the 20% maximum, steady still stalls on day 32, after day 28.
4. What the new mechanics do [S], ranked by effect:
   • Swarm tariff controller (largest positive): hype stall 13 → 32 on its own.
   • Withdrawal tax plus in-game spending (mixed):
     • Lowers the effective sold share from 65% to 52% and lifts the steady day-35 price by 23%.
     • But it hurts late joiners, because incumbents reinvest into more hash (steady week-4 payback 36.6 → 41.3 days on its own).
     • The mitigations in §1.2 (only 25% of in-game spending can buy packs, capped at 1 token-pack per wallet per day) keep it acceptable.
   • Free NFT packs are the costliest promotion:
     • Opened on day 1 at full hash, they cut the hype stall from 13 to 4.
     • Opened at hour 48 with 50% "Starter" hash, the hype stall is 7.
   • Progressive sell tax: almost no effect at daily resolution. It only bites intraday: a 5 ETH dump pays 10.9–12.6%. It is a dump brake, not an economy lever.
   • Referrals: cost about 2% extra emission and have a small effect.
   • Lobbying: a modest burn source.
   • Beta caps: only reshape the first 15 hours of hype.
5. Launch recommendation for IMD on Robinhood Chain [I/S]:
   • Pair with ETH, poolBps = 9000 (all of the requester's 90% in the pool, so no team tokens).
   • Opening cap ≈ 5.6 ETH. That equals a 5 ETH virtual reserve on the 900 M pooled tokens, about $14k at $2,505/ETH.
   • With the defaults and 65% sell intent:
     • 5 ETH: steady never stalls in 35 days; hype stalls on day 7.
     • 3 ETH: steady stalls on day 35 and is the most robust at 90% sell intent (27 vs 14).
     • 10 and 20 ETH: both are worse.
   • No setting survives 90% sell intent everywhere.

---

1. Updated parameter table

v1 values (§1.1–1.5 of the previous report) all still apply unless changed here. Changed values are marked (changed).

1.1 Kept from v1 (summary)

Parameter	Value
Pack price	0.010 ETH, −15%/epoch (7 d), 0.006 floor, surge premium ≤ +50%
Pack ETH split	65 buy→reward pool / 10 buy→burn / 15 team / 10 heartbeat
Items per pack and odds	3 items. GPU 60 / Cooling 20 / PSU 12 / Room 8. Rarity C 70 / R 22 / E 7 / L 1
GPU hash	C 10 / R 28 / E 80 / L 250. Expected 38.27 hash per pack
Emission	3.5% of the reward pool per day, streamed
Sinks	Tariff × rpsEMA (starts at 0.15), repair 5%, merge 2%, overclock 15 days of yield × 1.4^k (5 levels), slots
Grid events	2 per day. Odds and effects as in v1. Blackout cooldown 6 ticks. The swarm picks the type; the future block hash picks districts
Anti-whale	20 packs/wallet/24 h after beta, 40 GPUs, soft cap 2% of hash, audits

1.2 New mechanics

#	Parameter	Value	Reason / evidence
1	Base swap fee (changed)	1.25% of the ETH leg, IMD policy: 1.00% to the paying wallet (= BLACKOUT FeeRouter, split 40 burn / 30 reward / 20 team / 10 heartbeat) and 0.25% to the IMD network	[F] imd.fun/docs. Buys pay only this.
1	Progressive sell fee	fee = min(15% − 0.25%, 1% + 5%·s1h + 4%·s24h + 0.5·min(dev, 10%)), plus the 0.25% network fee, so total ≤ 15.00%	Max of the formula = 1 + 5 + 4 + 5 = 15%. The hard cap is an immutable constant, so the token is never a honeypot.
1	s1h, s24h	max(0, (S − B)/(S + B + V0)) over the last 1 h (12 × 5-min buckets) and 24 h (24 × 1 h buckets). S/B = ETH value of sells/buys. V0 = 0.5 ETH (1 h), 2 ETH (24 h)	V0 damps thin-volume noise: a lone 0.05 ETH sell cannot trip the tax.
1	dev	max(0, 1 − spot_after / TWAP30)	Measured after the swap (fee taken in afterSwap on the ETH output), so a single-block dump cannot dodge the fee. The stress test shows the earlier beforeSwap version charged a one-block 5 ETH dump only 1% [S].
1	Update and decay	Recomputed on every sell. It rises at once. The stored fee falls by at most 1 pp per 10 min toward the target. The 1 h term clears within 1 h, the 24 h term within 24 h.	Stress [S]: after a 5 ETH dump the fee peaks at 12.5%, is 4% after 2 h, 2–3% while the 24 h window holds the dump, and back to base after ~25 h.
1	Sell-tax routing (excess over 1%)	35% buy & burn / 40% buy → reward pool / 15% team / 10% heartbeat	Most of it goes back to the players who stay, as rewards. Team ≤ 20% per stream.
2	Withdrawal tax	wtax(age) = max(5%, 20% − 15%·age/7 d), where age = token-weighted time since the reward accrued (FIFO "vintage" buckets per day)	As briefed. The 7-day decay rewards patience without trapping funds.
2	Redistribution	Tax tokens are added to the next tick's accrual, pro-rata by effective hash across all farms	Goes to "players who stay"; no extra emission.
2	In-game spending of unclaimed rewards	0% tax and +5% purchasing power on upgrades, repairs, electricity prepay, lobbying (token lobby is burned) and token-paid packs	As briefed.
2	Token-paid packs	Price = pack ETH price / TWAP30 × (1/1.05). Max 1 per wallet per day. Tokens: 70% back to the reward pool, 30% burned. No team cut (team is ETH only).	Without the cap, incumbents compound hash: in a v2 run without the IMD-policy flag, 50% of in-game spending on packs moved the hype stall from 31 to 20 (scratch run, reproducible with token_pack_share=0.5, imd_policy=False) [S]. The sim models the cap as 25% of in-game spending.
2	Behaviour response [A]	Share of sell intent moved in game = 1.5 × average withdrawal tax (13.6%) = 20%. Share deferred (held) = 1.0 × (sell fee − 1%)	Effective sold share 65% → 51.8% (steady) [S].
3	Referrals	Inviter earns 5% of the referee's mining rewards, paid on top from the reward pool, one level. referrer is set once on the first action (pack, claim or place), must be ≠ self and must already have a farm. Unreferred players pay nothing extra.	Extra emission = 5% × referred share (40% assumed) = +2.0% of emission: steady 9.6 M tokens over 35 days [S].
4	IMD NFT starter pack	One per tokenId of the Identity MD collection (1,999 items, ~820 owners on OpenSea [F]). Merkle root of (tokenId, owner) at a fixed Ethereum block chosen by the owner and set once before launch. Claim window: hour 48 to day 16. 3 items, rarity floor Rare (C→R, L→E: R 92% / E 8%). "Starter" edition: non-transferable, 50% hash until the claimer opens one paid pack	Opening on day 1 at full hash cut the hype stall from 13 to 4 [S]. Hour-48 start with 50% hash gives 7. Expected starter hash at full rate: 57.9 vs 38.3 for a paid pack.
4	Claim rate [A]	35% (700 packs). Sensitivity 10–60%.	Token airdrops see ~63–64% claimed (Arbitrum after day 1, Anchor) [F]. A ~$25 game pack on another chain, needing bridged gas, should claim lower [I]. Cost: 6.5–6.7 ETH of forgone list price plus dilution [S].
5	Lobbying	Players pay ETH for their district: 85% buy & burn, 10% team, 5% heartbeat. Per-district lobby L_d decays with a 3-day half-life. Blackout selection weight w_d = max(0.40, 1/(1 + 0.5·L_d/max(L̄, 0.05 ETH)))	At most −60% weight, so never a guarantee. At 4× the mean lobby, a district's blackout odds fall from 12.5% to ~6.8–7.5% [S]. Unlobbied districts rise to ~15–18%. The cooldown still applies.
5	Lobby volume [A]	0.00004 ETH per active farm per day (~$0.10)	The rational value is small: blackouts cost ~1.25% of income [I]. So lobbying is a social burn, not an economic lever.
5	Electricity tariff	Set daily by the swarm, ±10%/day, bounds 0.10–0.30 of rpsEMA	v1 found tariff the strongest churn lever. The sim policy: lower it when a new pack's projected payback is > 35 d, raise it when < 25 d and the price is falling.
5	Weekly inspection bonus	Score = 7-day burned spend ÷ 7-day gross accrual, for farms ≥ 100 hash. Top farm wins 1% of the week's emission (paid from the pool, half sold [A]). Permissionless: during a 24 h window anyone submits a candidate and the contract keeps the max.	O(1) on chain. The swarm does not pick the winner.
6	Beta caps (no admin)	Per wallet per rolling 24 h: 3 packs (h 0–12), 6 (h 12–24), 10 (h 24–48), then 20. Global per hour: 75 (h 0–6), 150 (h 6–24), 300 (h 24–48), then uncapped. All derived from block.timestamp − launchTime.	Hype: first-hour demand of ~293 packs queues up to 757 packs, cleared by hour 15. No daily total changes [S]. Steady and weak never queue.
—	Team share per stream	Packs 15%, base fee 20%, sell tax 15%, lobby 10%; each ≤ 20% (contract-enforced)	Aggregate 15.0% in all scenarios [S].

---

2. Simulation model changes

Unchanged from v1:

• the AMM is constant product with a virtual ETH reserve
• daily steps with two event ticks
• cohorts by purchase day, with payback per active pack
• projection to 120 days
• the stall rule: the first day ≥ 3 on which a new pack does not pay back within 60 days, or farms fall below 25% of peak

Added, each switchable for the ablation:

• IMD policy:
  • 900 M tokens in the pool.
  • A 0.25% network fee on every swap.
  • The swarm's 100 M tokens: 50% sold evenly over days 1–14 [A].
• Sell fee:
  • In the 35-day run, the daily imbalance is net sells against system buys (pack buys, lobby burns, fee buybacks) plus external buys.
  • The 1 h term is taken as 1.25× the 24 h term [A]. TWAP deviation is taken as half of the day's price drop [A].
  • The exact 5-minute formula is exercised separately in the stress test (§3.6).
• External traders [A]: round-trip volume of 0.5 × the day's pack ETH. They pay the base fee on the buy and the dynamic fee on the sell.
• Claims:
  • Claims are spread by age: 40% claimed on day 0, 30% on day 3, 30% on day 7 [A]. This gives an average withdrawal tax of 13.6%.
  • Tokens reach the AMM with that delay. For per-cohort accounting they are valued at the day's execution price (approximation).
  • Unclaimed holdings are valued at the pool price × 0.95.
• Free NFT packs are separate zero-cost cohorts. They are excluded from payback and stall but included in hash and active farms.
• Not modelled: see §10.

---

3. Results per scenario [S] (recommended defaults, 10 ETH virtual reserve for comparability with v1)

Notes on the tables:

• Price is in ETH per 1 M tokens.
• "Sell fee" is the day's average effective fee rate, excluding the 0.25% network fee.
• "Runway" is the number of days for the pool to fall to 10% of its peak with zero inflow.
• The table carries both the reward pool and the burned/supply figures. Supply = 1 B − burned.

3.1 Hype

day	active farms	packs	pack price	pack ETH	lobby ETH	burned (cum)	supply	reward pool	price ETH/1M	runway d	net yield/pack/day ETH	sell fee	tariff	team ETH (cum)	heartbeat ETH (cum)	events
1	616	1875	0.0100	18.75	0.025	40.4M	959.6M	477.6M	0.0632	65	0.000441	1.0%	0.150	2.85	1.90	heatwave/surge
2	927	769	0.0144	11.05	0.038	60.1M	939.9M	545.1M	0.1108	65	0.000542	1.0%	0.150	4.54	3.01	blackout/surge
3	1382	1309	0.0100	13.09	0.056	78.3M	921.7M	584.7M	0.1817	65	0.000560	1.0%	0.150	6.54	4.34	heatwave/heatwave
5	2069	936	0.0100	9.37	0.084	109.1M	890.9M	597.3M	0.3007	65	0.000596	1.0%	0.150	9.74	6.47	surge/heatwave
7	2475	686	0.0100	6.86	0.100	135.8M	864.2M	580.4M	0.3652	64	0.000547	1.0%	0.150	12.03	7.98	heatwave/audit
10	2833	500	0.0085	4.25	0.115	170.6M	829.4M	543.7M	0.3696	62	0.000426	1.8%	0.165	14.33	9.50	blackout/heatwave
14	3051	324	0.0085	2.76	0.124	214.0M	786.0M	489.8M	0.3287	59	0.000272	2.9%	0.200	16.41	10.87	heatwave/audit
17	3101	279	0.0072	2.02	0.126	242.5M	757.5M	451.3M	0.3292	57	0.000241	1.4%	0.200	17.45	11.55	heatwave/surge
21	3065	228	0.0072	1.65	0.125	276.3M	723.7M	402.1M	0.3204	54	0.000202	2.1%	0.162	18.60	12.31	heatwave/surge
24	3011	222	0.0061	1.36	0.123	297.8M	702.2M	369.3M	0.3123	51	0.000170	1.9%	0.146	19.29	12.76	heatwave/audit
28	2916	205	0.0061	1.26	0.119	322.4M	677.6M	328.7M	0.3005	48	0.000155	2.3%	0.100	20.15	13.32	surge/heatwave
31	2818	199	0.0060	1.20	0.115	338.5M	661.5M	302.7M	0.2949	46	0.000132	1.6%	0.100	20.75	13.71	audit/heatwave
35	2656	179	0.0060	1.07	0.109	357.9M	642.1M	271.2M	0.2874	42	0.000113	2.1%	0.100	21.49	14.20	heatwave/blackout

join week	avg pack price ETH	paid back by day 35	avg payback days (incl. projected)	projected never (<=120 d)
1	0.0107	25%	50.8	10%
2	0.0085	0%	56.4	21%
3	0.0072	0%	58.8	52%
4	0.0061	0%	72.8	70%
5	0.0060	0%	n/a	100%

week	pack ETH	lobby ETH	base hook fees ETH	sell tax ETH	team ETH	team % of inflow	heartbeat ETH	withdrawal tax redistributed (M tok)	avg sell fee
1	78.69	0.468	0.908	0.001	12.03	15.0%	7.98	6.5	1.0%
2	27.56	0.818	0.523	0.382	4.38	14.9%	2.89	6.0	2.0%
3	13.57	0.878	0.253	0.092	2.19	14.8%	1.44	5.0	1.5%
4	9.38	0.851	0.190	0.131	1.55	14.7%	1.01	4.5	1.9%
5	8.13	0.795	0.162	0.090	1.35	14.7%	0.88	3.9	1.7%

• Player ETH inflow: packs 137.34 + lobbying 3.81 + base hook fees 2.03 + progressive sell tax 0.70 = 143.88 ETH
• Team ETH 21.49 (= 14.9% of inflow: packs 20.60, base fee 0.41, sell tax 0.10, lobby 0.38); heartbeat ETH 14.20
• Withdrawal tax redistributed to staying farms: 25.9M tokens (~7.84 ETH at the day's price)
• Referral emission 11.2M tokens; inspection bonuses 5.61M; packs bought with tokens 494
• Free NFT packs claimed 700 (forgone pack ETH at list price 6.67)
• Effective share of free tokens sold: 51.5% (intent 65%), moved in game 13.2%
• Peak active farms 3101; day-35 farms 2656; min reward pool after day 1 271.2M; day-35 runway 42 d
• Stall day: 4

3.2 Steady

day	active farms	packs	pack price	pack ETH	lobby ETH	burned (cum)	supply	reward pool	price ETH/1M	runway d	net yield/pack/day ETH	sell fee	tariff	team ETH (cum)	heartbeat ETH (cum)	events
1	148	450	0.0100	4.50	0.006	27.6M	972.4M	197.1M	0.0197	65	0.000198	1.0%	0.135	0.68	0.45	heatwave/surge
2	241	292	0.0100	2.92	0.010	43.8M	956.2M	271.7M	0.0264	65	0.000216	1.0%	0.122	1.13	0.75	blackout/surge
3	393	337	0.0100	3.37	0.016	59.6M	940.4M	332.7M	0.0352	65	0.000215	1.0%	0.109	1.64	1.09	heatwave/heatwave
5	605	219	0.0100	2.19	0.025	82.2M	917.8M	374.0M	0.0468	65	0.000219	1.0%	0.100	2.30	1.52	surge/heatwave
7	751	235	0.0100	2.35	0.031	104.1M	895.9M	400.4M	0.0603	65	0.000231	1.0%	0.100	3.01	2.00	heatwave/audit
10	989	296	0.0085	2.52	0.040	135.2M	864.8M	422.9M	0.0826	65	0.000233	1.0%	0.100	4.16	2.76	blackout/heatwave
14	1291	305	0.0085	2.60	0.052	174.0M	826.0M	426.8M	0.1113	65	0.000226	1.0%	0.100	5.75	3.81	heatwave/audit
17	1492	344	0.0072	2.49	0.061	200.5M	799.5M	418.9M	0.1396	64	0.000224	1.0%	0.100	6.90	4.57	heatwave/surge
21	1713	351	0.0072	2.54	0.070	233.0M	767.0M	399.1M	0.1765	63	0.000216	1.0%	0.100	8.46	5.60	heatwave/surge
24	1869	392	0.0061	2.41	0.076	255.5M	744.5M	381.4M	0.2023	61	0.000190	1.0%	0.100	9.58	6.34	heatwave/audit
28	2068	398	0.0061	2.45	0.084	283.4M	716.6M	355.3M	0.2348	59	0.000176	1.0%	0.100	11.10	7.35	surge/heatwave
31	2209	408	0.0060	2.45	0.090	302.7M	697.3M	336.9M	0.2605	58	0.000155	1.0%	0.100	12.25	8.10	audit/heatwave
35	2382	413	0.0060	2.48	0.097	326.5M	673.5M	312.6M	0.2934	56	0.000141	1.0%	0.100	13.80	9.12	heatwave/blackout

join week	avg pack price ETH	paid back by day 35	avg payback days (incl. projected)	projected never (<=120 d)
1	0.0100	88%	27.9	0%
2	0.0085	28%	30.6	0%
3	0.0072	0%	33.8	0%
4	0.0061	0%	36.5	0%
5	0.0060	0%	57.2	0%

week	pack ETH	lobby ETH	base hook fees ETH	sell tax ETH	team ETH	team % of inflow	heartbeat ETH	withdrawal tax redistributed (M tok)	avg sell fee
1	19.67	0.135	0.213	0.000	3.01	15.0%	2.00	4.2	1.0%
2	17.76	0.303	0.230	0.000	2.74	15.0%	1.81	5.5	1.0%
3	17.49	0.439	0.228	0.000	2.71	14.9%	1.79	5.5	1.0%
4	16.92	0.545	0.240	0.000	2.64	14.9%	1.74	4.9	1.0%
5	17.19	0.640	0.252	0.000	2.69	14.9%	1.78	4.3	1.0%

• Player ETH inflow: packs 89.04 + lobbying 2.06 + base hook fees 1.16 + progressive sell tax 0.00 = 92.27 ETH
• Team ETH 13.80 (= 15.0% of inflow: packs 13.36, base fee 0.23, sell tax 0.00, lobby 0.21); heartbeat ETH 9.12
• Withdrawal tax redistributed to staying farms: 24.4M tokens (~3.69 ETH at the day's price)
• Referral emission 9.6M tokens; inspection bonuses 4.79M; packs bought with tokens 246
• Free NFT packs claimed 700 (forgone pack ETH at list price 6.49)
• Effective share of free tokens sold: 51.8% (intent 65%), moved in game 13.2%
• Peak active farms 2382; day-35 farms 2382; min reward pool after day 1 271.7M; day-35 runway 56 d
• Stall day: 34

3.3 Weak

day	active farms	packs	pack price	pack ETH	lobby ETH	burned (cum)	supply	reward pool	price ETH/1M	runway d	net yield/pack/day ETH	sell fee	tariff	team ETH (cum)	heartbeat ETH (cum)	events
1	44	135	0.0100	1.35	0.002	11.7M	988.3M	70.3M	0.0134	65	0.000146	1.0%	0.135	0.21	0.14	heatwave/surge
2	68	80	0.0100	0.80	0.003	19.2M	980.8M	103.9M	0.0148	65	0.000154	1.0%	0.122	0.33	0.22	blackout/surge
3	137	80	0.0100	0.80	0.006	26.8M	973.2M	133.1M	0.0162	65	0.000115	1.0%	0.109	0.45	0.30	heatwave/heatwave
5	260	74	0.0100	0.74	0.011	41.6M	958.4M	177.0M	0.0189	65	0.000105	1.0%	0.100	0.68	0.45	surge/heatwave
7	302	66	0.0100	0.66	0.013	55.6M	944.4M	205.9M	0.0214	65	0.000115	1.0%	0.100	0.89	0.59	heatwave/audit
10	363	72	0.0085	0.61	0.015	75.7M	924.3M	235.3M	0.0249	65	0.000119	1.0%	0.100	1.19	0.79	blackout/heatwave
14	423	60	0.0085	0.51	0.018	101.0M	899.0M	251.2M	0.0284	65	0.000114	1.0%	0.100	1.53	1.01	heatwave/audit
17	452	65	0.0072	0.47	0.019	118.8M	881.2M	255.3M	0.0317	65	0.000115	1.0%	0.100	1.76	1.17	heatwave/surge
21	450	55	0.0072	0.40	0.019	140.7M	859.3M	250.5M	0.0352	64	0.000114	1.0%	0.100	2.03	1.34	heatwave/surge
24	450	60	0.0061	0.37	0.019	156.2M	843.8M	244.2M	0.0375	63	0.000103	1.0%	0.100	2.21	1.46	heatwave/audit
28	444	51	0.0061	0.31	0.018	175.3M	824.7M	231.2M	0.0399	62	0.000099	1.0%	0.100	2.42	1.60	surge/heatwave
31	435	48	0.0060	0.29	0.018	188.6M	811.4M	221.0M	0.0415	61	0.000089	1.0%	0.100	2.56	1.69	audit/heatwave
35	418	41	0.0060	0.25	0.017	204.8M	795.2M	205.9M	0.0431	59	0.000084	1.0%	0.100	2.73	1.80	heatwave/blackout

join week	avg pack price ETH	paid back by day 35	avg payback days (incl. projected)	projected never (<=120 d)
1	0.0100	0%	n/a	100%
2	0.0085	0%	n/a	100%
3	0.0072	0%	103.9	53%
4	0.0061	0%	96.8	39%
5	0.0060	0%	n/a	100%

week	pack ETH	lobby ETH	base hook fees ETH	sell tax ETH	team ETH	team % of inflow	heartbeat ETH	withdrawal tax redistributed (M tok)	avg sell fee
1	5.83	0.054	0.063	0.000	0.89	15.0%	0.59	1.9	1.0%
2	4.11	0.110	0.052	0.000	0.64	14.9%	0.42	3.2	1.0%
3	3.17	0.130	0.039	0.000	0.50	14.9%	0.33	3.4	1.0%
4	2.48	0.129	0.033	0.000	0.39	14.8%	0.26	3.2	1.0%
5	1.93	0.124	0.028	0.000	0.31	14.8%	0.20	2.9	1.0%

• Player ETH inflow: packs 17.52 + lobbying 0.55 + base hook fees 0.21 + progressive sell tax 0.00 = 18.28 ETH
• Team ETH 2.73 (= 14.9% of inflow: packs 2.63, base fee 0.04, sell tax 0.00, lobby 0.05); heartbeat ETH 1.80
• Withdrawal tax redistributed to staying farms: 14.7M tokens (~0.47 ETH at the day's price)
• Referral emission 5.6M tokens; inspection bonuses 2.81M; packs bought with tokens 32
• Free NFT packs claimed 700 (forgone pack ETH at list price 6.49)
• Effective share of free tokens sold: 51.8% (intent 65%), moved in game 13.2%
• Peak active farms 453; day-35 farms 418; min reward pool after day 1 103.9M; day-35 runway 59 d
• Stall day: 3

3.4 Per-week team and heartbeat ETH

These are in the weekly tables above. Summary:

Scenario	Inflow (35 d)	Team ETH	Team %	Heartbeat ETH	Sell tax collected (excess over base)	Withdrawal tax redistributed
hype	143.88	21.49	14.9%	14.20	0.70 ETH	25.9 M tok (~7.84 ETH)
steady	92.27	13.80	15.0%	9.12	0.00 ETH	24.4 M tok (~3.69 ETH)
weak	18.28	2.73	14.9%	1.80	0.00 ETH	14.7 M tok (~0.47 ETH)

The sell tax raises little in this model. The daily-average fee only exceeds the base in hype (max 2.9%), because system buys from packs offset player sells most days [S]. In practice, revenue from the sell tax will come from intraday dumps, which a daily model cannot see. Team income is driven by packs: 97% in steady.

3.5 Beta caps, lobbying, fairness

Beta caps (packs per day without → with caps)

• hype: day 1 1875 -> 1875; day 2 769 -> 769; day 3 1309 -> 1309
• steady: day 1 450 -> 450; day 2 292 -> 292; day 3 337 -> 337
• weak: day 1 135 -> 135; day 2 80 -> 80; day 3 80 -> 80
  • hype hourly queue: first-hour demand 293 packs vs cap 75/h; max queue 757 packs; queue cleared at hour 15
  • steady hourly queue: first-hour demand 70 packs vs cap 75/h; max queue 0 packs; queue cleared at hour never queued
  • weak hourly queue: first-hour demand 21 packs vs cap 75/h; max queue 0 packs; queue cleared at hour never queued

Lobbying curve

district lobby vs district mean	selection weight	blackout odds if only this district lobbies (8 districts)	change vs 12.5%
0x	1.00	18.3%	+47%
0.5x	0.80	14.9%	+19%
1x	0.67	12.5%	+0%
2x	0.50	9.3%	-26%
4x	0.40	6.8%	-45%
8x	0.40	5.4%	-57%
32x	0.40	5.4%	-57%

Long-run blackout share per district with the 6-tick cooldown, lobby profile [4,4,1,1,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25] x mean: 7.5%, 7.4%, 12.4%, 12.5%, 15.1%, 15.0%, 15.0%, 15.0%

Event fairness (28 days, 4,000 farms; 1.00 = income with no events)

setting	p1	p5	median	p95	p99
cooldown, no lobbying (v1)	0.996	0.997	1.013	1.030	1.030
cooldown + lobbying profile	0.990	0.997	1.016	1.030	1.030

3.6 Sell-fee stress test (exact on-chain rule, 5-minute steps) [S]

Setup:

• The pool holds 30 ETH virtual against 120 M tokens.
• Background flow: 0.02 ETH buys and 0.02 ETH sells every 5 minutes.
• At minute 60, one wallet dumps tokens.

case	dumper's avg sell fee	peak fee	fee back within 0.5 pp of base at minute
1.5 ETH dump over 30 min, pool 30 ETH real-equivalent	6.13%	8.11%	1005
5 ETH dump over 30 min	10.88%	12.52%	1520
5 ETH dump in one 5-min block	12.59%	12.59%	1505
20 ETH dump over 30 min (extreme)	13.26%	13.88%	1525

Fee path, 5 ETH dump over 30 min (minute: fee): 60: 1.0%, 65: 6.9%, 70: 10.3%, 80: 11.9%, 90: 12.5%, 100: 12.0%, 120: 10.0%, 150: 7.0%, 180: 4.0%, 240: 3.1%, 360: 2.9%, 720: 2.4%, 1440: 2.0%, 1500: 2.0%, 1560: 1.0%, 1800: 1.0%

Max daily-average sell fee in the 35-day runs: hype 2.9%, steady 1.0%, weak 1.0%

Readings:

• A dumper pays 6–13% on the dump.
• The cap is never reached.
• Normal sellers who arrive in the next ~2 h pay elevated fees (10% → 4%). For ~24 h they pay 2–3%, because the 24 h term remembers the dump.

This is a deliberate trade-off. To shorten the tail, the heartbeat may lower a24h (bounds in §5).

---

4. Comparison with the previous report [S]

"v1 model" is the v1 simulation reproduced exactly by v2 with every new flag off. Each "+" row adds one mechanic to v1. Each "v2 minus" row removes one mechanic from the full v2.

variant	steady wk1 / wk4 payback d	steady stall	hype wk1 / wk3 payback d	hype stall	weak stall	steady team ETH (% inflow)	hype team ETH (% inflow)	steady day-35 price /1M
v1 model (all new mechanics off)	27.2 / 36.6	33	34.6 / 58.0	13	3	13.2 (15.0%)	20.5 (15.0%)	0.231
+ progressive sell tax	27.2 / 36.6	33	41.5 / 53.6	13	3	13.2 (15.0%)	20.6 (15.0%)	0.231
+ withdrawal tax / in-game bonus	26.9 / 41.3	32	35.7 / 53.1	13	3	13.2 (15.0%)	20.5 (15.0%)	0.284
+ referrals 5%	27.0 / 36.9	33	34.6 / 61.9	13	3	13.2 (15.0%)	20.4 (15.0%)	0.228
+ free NFT packs	30.8 / 37.9	34	39.5 / 55.1	7	3	13.3 (15.0%)	20.6 (15.0%)	0.234
+ lobbying	26.8 / 34.9	34	35.8 / 53.7	14	3	13.4 (14.9%)	20.8 (14.9%)	0.241
+ swarm tariff controller	25.9 / 34.9	34	36.5 / 47.0	32	3	13.3 (15.0%)	20.5 (15.0%)	0.218
+ inspection bonus	27.5 / 37.5	33	36.3 / 62.0	12	3	13.2 (15.0%)	20.4 (15.0%)	0.228
+ 48 h beta caps	27.2 / 36.6	33	34.6 / 58.0	13	3	13.2 (15.0%)	20.5 (15.0%)	0.231
+ external trader volume	26.6 / 35.0	34	35.9 / 54.0	13	3	13.4 (15.1%)	20.7 (15.1%)	0.235
+ IMD launch policy (90% pool, 0.25% network fee, swarm sells 5%)	29.1 / 36.6	34	55.6 / 69.8	4	3	13.1 (15.0%)	20.4 (15.0%)	0.237
v2: all mechanics on	27.9 / 36.5	34	50.8 / 58.8	4	3	13.8 (15.0%)	21.5 (14.9%)	0.293
v2 minus sell tax	27.9 / 36.5	34	52.4 / 58.8	4	3	13.8 (15.0%)	21.4 (14.9%)	0.293
v2 minus withdrawal tax	28.8 / 33.0	none	52.4 / 69.3	4	3	13.8 (15.0%)	21.4 (14.9%)	0.237
v2 minus referrals	28.6 / 36.3	34	51.5 / 67.5	4	3	13.8 (15.0%)	21.5 (14.9%)	0.296
v2 minus external trader volume	29.0 / 38.0	33	52.3 / 63.0	4	3	13.6 (14.9%)	21.2 (14.9%)	0.289
v2 minus IMD policy (1 B in pool, no network fee, no swarm sells)	26.7 / 36.9	33	31.9 / 44.4	31	3	13.8 (15.0%)	21.5 (14.9%)	0.286

What each mechanic changed, in order of mechanics briefed:

Mechanic	Effect in the sim	Interpretation [I]
1. Progressive sell tax	Alone: steady unchanged, hype week-3 payback 58 → 54 d. In v2: ≈ 0 effect at daily resolution.	It is a dump brake and price-stability feature, not a revenue or payback lever. Its value is intraday (§3.6), which this daily model understates.
2. Withdrawal tax + in-game bonus	Sold share 65% → 52%. Steady day-35 price +23%. 24–26 M tokens redistributed per scenario. Steady week-4 payback 36.6 → 41.3 d on its own; removing it from v2 moves steady stall 34 → none.	Holding works, but reinvested rewards become hash and dilute newcomers. That is why token-paid packs are capped. It is a trade between price support and late-joiner fairness.
3. Referrals 5%	+2% emission; small negative effect on payback (hype week-3 58 → 62 d).	Cheap growth tool. The effect on demand (more players) is not modelled, so this is cost only.
4. Free NFT packs	Alone (hour 48, 50% hash): steady week-1 payback 27 → 31 d, hype stall 13 → 7.	A large dilution relative to early inflow. Mitigation: hour-48 start and 50% Starter hash. Keep it as a marketing cost and be honest about it.
5a. Lobbying	2.06 ETH of lobby ETH in steady (1.75 ETH bought and burned); small positive effect. At 5× volume, steady never stalls.	A good sink if players like it.
5b. Swarm tariff (±10%/d)	Hype stall 13 → 32 on its own, the strongest new lever.	The tariff falls to its 0.10 floor in steady and weak, so its power is used up early.
5c. Inspection bonus	≈ 0 (1% of weekly emission).	Engagement, not economics.
6. Beta caps	No daily change; smooths hours 0–15 of hype.	A safety feature only.
IMD launch policy	Hype stall 13 → 4 in v1. In v2, removing it moves hype 4 → 31.	The swarm's 10% unlock is the main external risk.

---

5. Failure modes and heartbeat parameters

The heartbeat may change only these parameters, within bounds, at most one step per epoch (7 d) unless stated. Every change is emitted in the tick letter.

The heartbeat can never change:

• team shares
• the 15% sell-fee cap
• the base fee (IMD policy)
• item tables, rarity odds or NFT terms
• the referral rate
• mint rights

#	Failure mode	Early signal	Lever (bounds; max step)
1	Inflow collapse (weak)	packs₂₄h < 25% of the 7-day average	epochPriceStep 0–20% (±5 pp). packPriceFloor 0.004–0.010. tariff toward 0.10. The weak case still stalls on day 3. There is no parameter fix.
2	Sell spiral / swarm unlock dump	spot < 0.9 × 24 h TWAP	a1h 2–6% (±1 pp/day). a24h 0–5% (±1 pp/day). kTwap 0.2–0.5 (±0.1/day). Max total stays 15%. sellTaxSplit.burn 20–50% (±10 pp; reward takes the difference).
3	Hype overbuy	packs₂₄h > 3× target	surgePremiumCap 0–100% (±25 pp). surgeTargetPacks 500–3000.
4	Emission speed	runway < 30 d	emissionRate 2.5–5.0%/day (±0.5 pp).
5	Upkeep churn	daily churn > 5%	tariff 0.10–0.30, ±10% per day (daily, new). repairPerPoint 0.015–0.04.
6	Reinvest dilution of newcomers	week-N payback > target + 10 d	ingameBonus 0–10% (±2.5 pp). tokenPacksPerWalletDay 0–2 (±1). tokenPackRecycle 50–90% (±10 pp).
7	Withdrawal tax too punitive	claims/day < 20% of accrual for 3 days, or churn spike	wtaxDay0 10–25% (±5 pp). wtaxFloor 0–5% (±2.5 pp; may only be lowered). wtaxDecayDays 3–14 (±2).
8	Referral farming (sybil inviters)	> 30% of referrers with ≥ 10 referees that each have < 1 paid pack	referralMinPaidPacks 0–3 (the referee must open N paid packs before the inviter earns). The rate itself is fixed.
9	Lobby capture	one district > 40% of 7-day lobby	lobbyK 0.25–1.0 (±0.25). lobbyMinWeight 0.40–0.70 (may only be raised).
10	Event unfairness	district 7-day income < 0.9 × mean	Event odds within v1 bounds. Cooldown ≥ 6 ticks (may only be raised).
11	Beta overload	n/a	No lever. Caps lift by time only.
12	Inspection gaming (wash burns)	winner score > 3× the median	inspectionShare 0–2% (±0.5 pp). inspectionMinHash 100–2,000.
13	MEV on buybacks	slippage > 2%	Keeper batch 0.1–1 ETH. TWAP tolerance 1–3%.
14	Pool emptying	impossible: pool-proportional emission plus ≤ 2% referral top-up and ≤ 1%/week inspection	none

---

6. Liquidity and launch: sensitivity with the new mechanics [S]

Virtual ETH here means the ETH-equivalent depth of the single-sided pool at open. For a range from price P₀ to ∞, the virtual ETH reserve equals P₀ × pooled tokens [I]. So virtual ETH = opening cap × poolBps/10,000. Payback figures are in days.

virtual ETH	sell intent	steady wk1 / wk4 payback	steady stall	hype stall	weak stall	steady team %	steady effective sold share	steady day-35 price /1M
3	50%	15.1 / 18.3 (never 0%)	none	none	28	15.0%	39.8%	0.490
3	65%	18.6 / 26.5 (never 0%)	35	7	5	15.0%	51.8%	0.380
3	90%	31.8 / 51.3 (never 0%)	27	4	3	15.0%	71.6%	0.256
5	50%	18.0 / 21.5 (never 0%)	none	none	5	15.0%	39.8%	0.443
5	65%	21.8 / 28.3 (never 0%)	none	7	3	15.0%	51.8%	0.350
5	90%	40.2 / 53.9 (never 29%)	14	4	3	15.0%	71.7%	0.244
10	50%	22.9 / 27.5 (never 0%)	none	none	3	14.9%	39.8%	0.345
10	65%	27.9 / 36.5 (never 0%)	34	4	3	15.0%	51.8%	0.293
10	90%	67.1 / 64.9 (never 29%)	4	3	3	15.0%	71.7%	0.225
20	50%	33.2 / 39.3 (never 0%)	35	7	3	14.9%	39.8%	0.259
20	65%	46.0 / 50.1 (never 0%)	7	4	3	15.0%	51.8%	0.231
20	90%	101.2 / 83.8 (never 28%)	3	3	3	15.0%	71.7%	0.189

Readings:

1. Thinner is better for players, up to a point.
   • 3–5 ETH give the best paybacks and stall days.
   • 3 ETH is the most robust if players sell 90% (steady stalls on day 27 vs 14 at 5 ETH).
   • But 3 ETH amplifies every price move. The day-35 price is 1.3× that of 10 ETH, and the launch is more exposed to snipers and a swarm unlock.
2. 20 ETH breaks the design at 65% sell intent: steady stalls on day 7.
3. Sell intent still dominates. At 90%, every depth fails the hype case and most fail steady. The withdrawal tax lowers the effective sold share to ~72% at 90% intent, which is not enough.

Recommended IMD launch settings (Robinhood Chain, chain 4663) [I]:

• pairWith = eth.
• poolBps = 9000: all of the requester's 90% seeds the pool. remainderTo receives nothing, so there are no team tokens.
• Opening cap 5.6 ETH: within the live 1–1,000 ETH customCap range [F]. With 900 M pooled tokens, this is the 5 ETH virtual reserve.
  • Alternative: 3.3 ETH cap (3 ETH virtual) if the requester prefers robustness to heavy selling over price stability.
• The hook kind is univ4_hook, with the BLACKOUT FeeRouter as the "paying wallet".
• Open question: whether an IMD hook launch lets a project-defined hook add the progressive sell fee on top of the policy fee. The docs show hook launches but do not say so.
• Swarm allocation: BLACKOUT cannot lock the swarm's 10%. Publish the risk. The sell tax also applies to those sells.

Other sensitivity (v2 defaults):

variant	steady wk1 / wk4 payback d	steady stall	hype wk1 / wk3 payback d	hype stall	weak stall	steady team ETH (% inflow)	hype team ETH (% inflow)	steady day-35 price /1M
baseline v2	27.9 / 36.5	34	50.8 / 58.8	4	3	13.8 (15.0%)	21.5 (14.9%)	0.293
team 0% everywhere (shares to reward)	22.4 / 25.9	none	28.7 / 36.9	none	3	0.0 (0.0%)	0.0 (0.0%)	0.379
team 20% everywhere (max allowed)	31.9 / 42.2	32	45.7 / 69.7	4	3	18.1 (20.0%)	28.4 (20.0%)	0.267
no behavioural response to taxes	28.4 / 34.2	35	49.9 / 68.0	4	3	13.8 (15.0%)	21.5 (14.9%)	0.250
withdrawal tax flat 20% (no decay), all claim day 0	30.4 / 37.0	34	54.7 / 59.4	4	3	13.8 (14.9%)	21.5 (14.9%)	0.329
sell-tax cap 8%	27.9 / 36.5	34	50.8 / 58.8	4	3	13.8 (15.0%)	21.5 (14.9%)	0.293
referred share 80%	27.8 / 36.6	33	51.4 / 60.7	4	3	13.8 (15.0%)	21.5 (14.9%)	0.291
NFT claim rate 10%	26.7 / 35.6	33	45.4 / 65.5	4	3	13.7 (15.0%)	21.3 (14.9%)	0.289
NFT claim rate 60%	29.9 / 37.0	34	49.3 / 62.1	4	3	13.9 (14.9%)	21.7 (14.9%)	0.298
lobbying x5	25.3 / 29.5	none	34.2 / 37.9	34	3	14.6 (14.5%)	23.0 (14.5%)	0.348
no external traders	29.0 / 38.0	33	52.3 / 63.0	4	3	13.6 (14.9%)	21.2 (14.9%)	0.289
external traders 2x pack ETH	26.6 / 32.5	35	37.2 / 54.1	13	3	14.4 (15.1%)	22.9 (15.1%)	0.307
emission 3.0%/day	30.1 / 35.5	35	50.8 / 64.7	4	3	13.4 (15.0%)	21.2 (14.9%)	0.301
swarm sells all 10% in 14 d	29.4 / 35.9	34	48.5 / 73.8	4	3	13.7 (15.0%)	21.4 (14.9%)	0.273
swarm sells nothing	26.7 / 36.9	33	31.9 / 44.7	31	3	13.8 (15.0%)	21.5 (14.9%)	0.318
churn x2	26.1 / 26.6	none	34.9 / 34.0	none	3	13.6 (15.0%)	20.9 (15.0%)	0.283

Notes:

• Team share: at 0% team, steady payback improves by ~6 days and hype never stalls. That is the price of team revenue. At the allowed maximum of 20%, steady stalls on day 32, which still meets the day-28 rule.
• External traders: volume helps (2× → hype stall 13), because fees on both legs feed the reward pool.

---

7. Updated contract spec (sized for one IMD launch prompt)

Everything in v1 §7 still applies. Additions and changes:

A. BlackoutHook (Uniswap v4 hook; permissions: afterSwap, afterSwapReturnDelta, beforeSwap, beforeSwapReturnDelta)

• Pool: ETH/BLACKOUT.
• The IMD policy fee (1.25%: 1% to the paying wallet = FeeRouter, 0.25% to the network) is applied as IMD configures it.
• Buys (ETH in, exact-input): no extra fee.
• Sells (token → ETH):
  • In afterSwap, compute fee per §1.2 using the windows including this swap and spot_after.
  • Take extra = ethOut · (fee − 1%) with poolManager.take(ETH, FeeRouter, extra) and return it as the unspecified delta. Exact-input sells take it from the ETH output; exact-output sells take it from the token input converted at spot.
  • require(totalFee ≤ 1500 bps) is an immutable constant.
• Whitelist: PackSale, LobbyBurner and FeeRouter buys pay no extra fee. They also do not count as "buys" in B, so system buybacks cannot be used to wash the imbalance. Note: the sim counted system buys in B, so this rule is stricter than what was simulated.
• State:
  • uint128[12] sell5m, buy5m (ring buffer)
  • uint128[24] sell1h, buy1h
  • uint32 lastBucket
  • uint16 storedFeeBps, uint32 feeTs
  • TWAP: 30-min ring buffer of (ts, cumulativePrice), 12 slots
• Events: SellFee(account, ethOut, feeBps, s1hBps, s24hBps, devBps).
• Reference facts [F]:
  • Hooks charge their own fees through return deltas plus poolManager.take.
  • LP-fee overrides (OVERRIDE_FEE_FLAG, max 1,000,000 = 100%) go to LPs and are not used here.

B. FeeRouter (the "paying wallet" in IMD terms)

• Receives the 1% base fee and the sell-tax excess.
• Splits are constants: base 40 burn / 30 reward / 20 team / 10 heartbeat; sell tax 35 / 40 / 15 / 10.
• require(teamShare ≤ 2000) for every stream.
• Burn and reward portions queue for executeBuys (v1 batching rules).
• Burn = transfer to a no-withdraw BurnVault, because the IMD token is fixed with plain transfers and no burn() [F].

C. FarmCore additions

• claim(amount):
  • Settle, then consume pending in FIFO daily vintages.
  • tax = Σ amount_i · wtax(now − day_i), sent to redistribution and added to the next tick's E.
  • Transfer amount − tax. Emits Claimed(a, gross, tax).
• spend(kind, amount):
  • Kinds: upgrade, repair, electricity, lobby, tokenPack.
  • Pays from the unclaimed balance with ×1.05 purchasing power and 0 tax.
  • tokenPack is limited to 1 per wallet per day: 70% to RewardPool, 30% to BurnVault. It mints a normal pack via PackSale.mintFor.
• setReferrer(r):
  • Called once, inside the first action.
  • r ≠ msg.sender and r already has a farm.
  • At settle: pool.release(r, 5% · gross) on top.
• Inspection:
  • submitInspection(farm) is open during [epochEnd, epochEnd + 24 h]. It keeps the max score.
  • finalizeInspection() pays 1% · weekEmission from the pool.
• tariff is set by the heartbeat through Params, at most once per 24 h, |Δ| ≤ 10%, bounds 0.10–0.30.

D. GridOperator additions

• lobby(district) payable:
  • 85% to LobbyBurner (buy & burn), 10% team, 5% heartbeat.
  • L_d is stored as (amount, ts) and decayed lazily: L·2^(−Δt/3 d).
  • Token lobbying through spend(lobby) burns tokens and counts at TWAP value.
• Blackout district:
  • r = uint256(bhash(arbBlockNumber − 1)) % Σw over the eligible districts (cooldown).
  • w_d as in §1.2, fixed-point 1e4.
  • The swarm still picks only the event type.

E. StarterClaim (Robinhood Chain)

• bytes32 immutable root of keccak256(abi.encode(tokenId, holder)), from an Ethereum snapshot at block snapshotBlock.
  • The root and the block are set once by the owner before launchTime. Both are values only the requester can provide, so they are placeholders in this spec.
• claim(tokenId, proof):
  • Requires msg.sender == holder and !claimed[tokenId].
  • Requires launchTime + 48 h ≤ now < launchTime + 16 d.
  • Verifies with OpenZeppelin MerkleProof.
  • Mints 3 Starter items (rarity table R 92% / E 8%, non-transferable, starter flag = 50% hash until paidPacks[holder] ≥ 1).
• Seed: same commit/reveal as packs.
• The snapshot ties a claim to the snapshot holder, so later NFT sales do not carry the claim. Say so in the UI.

F. PackSale additions

• Beta caps computed from t = now − launchTime:
  • per wallet, rolling 24 h: t < 12 h ? 3 : t < 24 h ? 6 : t < 48 h ? 10 : 20
  • global per hour: t < 6 h ? 75 : t < 24 h ? 150 : t < 48 h ? 300 : ∞
• No setter exists.

Invariants to test (new):

• totalSellFee ≤ 15% for any state.
• A single-swap dump pays the elevated fee.
• Σ teamShare_stream ≤ 20%.
• Withdrawal tax plus redistribution conserves tokens.
• A referral cannot be changed or self-assigned.
• Each NFT tokenId claims once; nothing can be claimed outside the window.
• Beta caps are monotone non-decreasing in time.
• Lobby weight is ≥ 0.40.

---

8. Risk note for players (publish as-is)

BLACKOUT is a game, not an investment.

• Where rewards come from: all token rewards are bought with ETH from other players' packs and from trading fees. As a group, players cannot take out more ETH than they put in. About 15% of all player ETH goes to the team and about 10% to the swarm treasury.
• Early players earn more than later ones. In our simulation:
  • With steady growth, packs paid back in about 28 days (week 1) to 37 days (week 4).
  • With fast hype that fades, packs often took 50–60+ days.
  • With weak demand, almost nobody broke even.
• Taxes:
  • Claiming rewards to your wallet costs 20%, falling to 5% after 7 days. Spending them in game costs nothing.
  • Selling the token costs 1.25% normally and up to 15% when many people are selling at once. The 15% cap cannot be changed.
• The swarm: the IMD swarm holds 10% of the token supply and can sell it. That can push the price down, especially in the first weeks.
• Events: grid events, lobbying by other districts and the chain's sequencer can affect your income. Lobbying lowers your blackout odds but never removes them.
• Free NFT starter packs: these mine at half speed until you open a paid pack.
• Only spend what you would spend on a game you expect to lose money on.

---

9. Facts, inferences, uncertainty, unanswered questions

Facts [F]:

• IMD launch policy: 1 B fixed supply with plain transfers; swarm 10%; 1.25% fee (1% to the paying wallet, 0.25% to the network); single-sided pool opening at a cap; Robinhood Chain 4663 ETH customCap 1–1,000 ETH (live API, 2026-10-10).
• Identity MD collection: 1,999 items and ~820 owners (OpenSea, 2026-10-10).
• Uniswap v4: hook fees via return deltas and take; MAX_LP_FEE 1,000,000 = 100%; OVERRIDE_FEE_FLAG for LP fees.
• Airdrop claim rates: Arbitrum ~63% of tokens claimed in the first days; Anchor 64.4%.
• Chain and gas: all v1 chain and gas facts still stand (v1 §11).

Simulation results [S]: everything in §3, §4 and §6. They are deterministic and reproducible.

Inferences [I]:

• equivalence of virtual ETH and cap × pool share
• the launch recommendation
• that the sell tax is an intraday brake, not a revenue source
• the lower NFT claim rate
• that lobbying is a social sink
• the v1 collective ceiling (players as a group recover at most ~75% of pack ETH), now slightly lower after the 0.25% network fee

Uncertainty:

• All behaviour parameters are guesses: sell intent, response to taxes, claim-age mix, referral share, NFT claim rate, lobby spend, trader volume, swarm sell-off.
• The daily model cannot see intraday sell-tax dynamics.
• The stall day is knife-edge in the hype case. Small changes move it by 10+ days (for example 4 vs 7 vs 31 across rows), so read stall days as ranges.
• The 7-day decay projection used for payback is sensitive to the last week's events.

Unanswered questions for the requester:

1. Can an IMD univ4_hook launch carry this progressive sell fee on top of the policy fee?
2. Opening cap: 5.6 ETH (recommended) or 3.3 ETH?
3. Ethereum snapshot block for the NFT merkle root, and confirmation of the Identity MD contract address.
4. Team and heartbeat treasury addresses. These are owner-settable; no values are guessed here.
5. Is the "Starter" 50%-hash rule acceptable? The alternative is full hash with a lower hype stall day.
6. Will IMD swarm seat holders be asked to lock or vest the 10% swarm allocation?

---

10. Not modelled

• Item luck
• Sybils and referral farming
• Intraday price paths (except in the stress test)
• ETH/USD moves
• Gas cost (immaterial per v1 §6)
• Demand uplift from referrals, NFT holders converting to buyers, or lobbying
• Per-wallet beta caps (aggregate demand per player is below the caps)

11. Assumptions [A]

• Carried from v1: all v1 assumptions §10.
• Sell behaviour:
  • Sell intent 65% of free tokens.
  • In-game redirect = 1.5 × average withdrawal tax (cap 60%). Deferral = 1.0 × excess sell fee.
  • Claim-age mix 40/30/30 at 0/3/7 days.
  • Token-pack share of in-game spending 25%.
• Referrals and NFT packs:
  • Referred share of hash 40%.
  • NFT claim rate 35%, with 50% of claims in the first 3 days of the window.
• Other flows:
  • Lobby 0.00004 ETH per farm per day.
  • External round-trip volume 0.5 × pack ETH.
  • Swarm sells 50% of its 10% over 14 days.
• Sell-fee inputs: 1 h imbalance = 1.25 × 24 h imbalance. TWAP deviation = half the day's price drop.
• Pool: 900 M tokens in the pool.

12. Sources

• Previous accepted report and sim, IMD job b9e37680: https://api.imdnotdead.fun/jobs/b9e37680-814c-4f17-b4bc-68272b77304d/result (artifact sha256 dfbd6842…c0b); repo copy sim/swarm_farm_sim.py
• IMD docs (launch policy, fee, supply, poolBps, chains), fetched 2026-10-10: https://imdnotdead.fun/docs/
• IMD live capabilities API (Robinhood Chain 4663 ETH customCap 1–1000 ETH), fetched 2026-10-10: https://api.imdnotdead.fun/requests/capabilities
• Identity MD on OpenSea (1,999 items, 820 owners), fetched 2026-10-10: https://opensea.io/collection/identitymd
• Uniswap v4 LPFeeLibrary.sol (DYNAMIC_FEE_FLAG, OVERRIDE_FEE_FLAG, MAX_LP_FEE): https://github.com/Uniswap/v4-core/blob/main/src/libraries/LPFeeLibrary.sol
• Uniswap v4 docs, dynamic fees: https://developers.uniswap.org/docs/protocols/v4/concepts/dynamic-fees
• Uniswap v4 docs, custom accounting (hook fees with return deltas and poolManager.take): https://developers.uniswap.org/docs/protocols/v4/guides/custom-accounting
• CoinDesk, Arbitrum airdrop: 37% unclaimed after day one (2023-03-23): https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/23/after-frenzied-arbitrum-airdrop-day-37-of-eligible-wallets-still-havent-claimed-their-arb/
• Anchor airdrop analysis (64.4% claimed): https://amusing-sky-b53.notion.site/Anchor-Airdrop-Analysis-9dca9fe7d5b747d680b802212758d7b7 (secondary)
• Arbitrum docs: blockhash and ArbSys (as in v1): https://docs.arbitrum.io/build-decentralized-apps/arbitrum-vs-ethereum/solidity-support
• OpenZeppelin MerkleProof: https://docs.openzeppelin.com/contracts/5.x/api/utils#MerkleProof (standard library; cited for the API, not fetched in this pass)